A big downtrend usually comes in a few parts.
1 – The warning. A clear break from the highs but it’s overlooked because “Bears are always wrong” (Etc etc).
2 – The crash. Obvious failure of the uptrend. Unfortunately, this is when people often want to get all in because “It always goes back up” (Etc etc).
3 – The big trap. Usually a rally of somewhere in the 100% range which makes everyone think the new bull run is starting.
4 – The crush and re-crush. The new bull trap fails and sets up a prolonged downtrend.
Here are some forecasts very few people seem to have on their radar right now.
1 – BTC is making a high at 30K. 31K will not be broken. We will not see BTC over 31K any time in the coming years. Yes – I said years.
2 – The next big drop will take us to about 17K BTC.
3 – After a bull trap we’ll be in a consistent downtrend.
4 – Over the next 3-4 years BTC will trade under 10K. Probably close to 6K.
And this would complete the 2021 forecast.
Trade active:
Trade active: Meh! Spiked.
I think this might be a bat pattern, which is a false BO pattern.
Short again 34K.
Stop 35.5K
If I am right, we have to see this turning into a wick.
For it to be just a stop run, it must only be a wick on bigger timeframes.
Big deal at the time, but entirely nominal seeming later. Trade active: Adding more shorts 33,700.
Pretty much just based on the flood of childish comments in this thread. Often that’s a great fade.
Trade active: Part 2
Trade active: Final line of shorts.
Feels like it’s now or never for the bear move. If we’re in a trappy top it should be close to over.
Comment: Someone made an interesting observation that I thought would be worth noting for review later. They said:
“Sentiment is at 2021 levels and prices are at 2022 levels”.
I thought that was an interesting juxtaposition. Trade active: Could be a harmonic top.
If this indeed going to be a reversal, the recent action would imply a very strong one.
Trade active: Moved off the high a bit and so far we have early structural failure of the uptrend.
Very possible we drop here and it’s just a pullback (Highly likely even in a bull move this would retrace, which is why the 34/35K short seems a no brainer to try again.
If we were to hold an uptrend drop would end around 32K.
If we get to 32K I’ll move my stop losses to even and wait to see if we break.
If we break, maybe this was just a liquidity spike.
Trade active: Short ETH now too.
Trade active: First potential trend failure. Here the 1.61 should usually be a good support in a bull move as the butterfly continuation trade.
Failure of this, spells failure of uptrend.
Moment of truth approaching.
