A big downtrend usually comes in a few parts.
1 – The warning. A clear break from the highs but it’s overlooked because “Bears are always wrong” (Etc etc).
2 – The crash. Obvious failure of the uptrend. Unfortunately, this is when people often want to get all in because “It always goes back up” (Etc etc).
3 – The big trap. Usually a rally of somewhere in the 100% range which makes everyone think the new bull run is starting.
4 – The crush and re-crush. The new bull trap fails and sets up a prolonged downtrend.
Here are some forecasts very few people seem to have on their radar right now.
1 – BTC is making a high at 30K. 31K will not be broken. We will not see BTC over 31K any time in the coming years. Yes – I said years.
2 – The next big drop will take us to about 17K BTC.
3 – After a bull trap we’ll be in a consistent downtrend.
4 – Over the next 3-4 years BTC will trade under 10K. Probably close to 6K.
And this would complete the 2021 forecast.
Trade active:
Trade active: Meh! Spiked.
I think this might be a bat pattern, which is a false BO pattern.
Short again 34K.
Stop 35.5K
If I am right, we have to see this turning into a wick.
For it to be just a stop run, it must only be a wick on bigger timeframes.
Big deal at the time, but entirely nominal seeming later. Trade active: Adding more shorts 33,700.
Pretty much just based on the flood of childish comments in this thread. Often that’s a great fade.
Trade active: Part 2
Trade active: Final line of shorts.
Feels like it’s now or never for the bear move. If we’re in a trappy top it should be close to over.
Comment: Someone made an interesting observation that I thought would be worth noting for review later. They said:
“Sentiment is at 2021 levels and prices are at 2022 levels”.
I thought that was an interesting juxtaposition. Trade active: Could be a harmonic top.
If this indeed going to be a reversal, the recent action would imply a very strong one.
