Today, we’re going to look at several scenarios for possible Bitcoin price movements.
Let’s start with the fact that our previous trade for BTCUSDT hit the breakeven stop yesterday. Although this trade showed +7.5% at its maximum and 2.5% to take profit, we recorded a +0.7% result. We hope that someone else managed to make better use of this trade and record a higher profit.
The triggering of a stop order makes it necessary to analyze the chart on a larger time frame and consider various possible scenarios in the future.
Head and shoulders is a global trend reversal pattern.
Probably, most people looking at the BTCUSDT chart now will be able to see something similar to the probability of H&S formation.
However, there is an important note: the final confirmation of this pattern will come only after the price of BTCUSDT breaks through and fixes below the “neck of the pattern”, i.e. below $24600-25300. Therefore, it is very important to wait for the confirmation of this pattern.
Here’s an example from 2020 when the same pattern was drawn twice, once it deceived, and the second time it worked:
And it is very likely that the first time, novice traders did not wait for the pattern to be confirmed and open short position above the neckline and suffered a loss on the upside. And the second time, they suffered a loss by taking longs, because they thought that the pattern didn’t work at all, as it had already happened a few weeks earlier, and the pattern worked out well after confirmation.
As the BTC price drops, we will analyze the market situation at the moment and look for a range to enter longs. At the moment, this range starts from $25300 (if buyers do not allow the low to be updated) to $24600 (if sellers manage to break the stops that are hidden behind the two previous neckline lows).
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If the price of BTCUSDT does consolidate below $25000, then there is a good chance that the pattern will work out. The target for this pattern is around $19700. But for now, at least for us, this is too obvious an option that everyone can see. But unfortunately or fortunately, “everyone” cannot make money in the market, can they?) Comment: Yesterday, the dominance of BTC fell sharper than its price, which made it possible for most altcoins not to collapse in price, as it had been the case before.
The potential for a decline is quite high, and this can be manifested by two phenomena:
1. BTC’s dominance falls by sharply reducing the value of BTC and, accordingly, the proportion of BTC capitalization to the total capitalization of the crypto market changes.
2. the total capitalization of altcoins may begin to grow sharply, “unconventionally” for the last weeks and months, and the proportion of BTC dominance (down) and altcoins (up) will change accordingly
Comment: The USDT dominance is at a critical point.
An upward breakout is possible by +7.5% – the dominance has increased by about the same amount over the past 7-10 days (so you can roughly see what happened to BTC and altcoins prices over the past few days)
But we would rather want to see a drop in this indicator, perhaps in three waves, as shown on the chart. The last such drop was in January 2023, and then altcoins grew +30+50+100+…% because it means that the USDT is being poured into altcoins and BTC
Which option do you believe in more?
