PEPE staged a surprise comeback in late June, racing to $0.0000018 by July 3. But having delivered an unimpressive performance in recent weeks, investors have started to jettison PEPE to ape in on the rallying DOGE.
PEPE Network Activity Decline Coincided With Dogecoin Price Rally
On-chain data hints that investors began to abandon the PEPE network once the Dogecoin price rallied around mid-July. The Santiment chart below illustrates that on July 12, the DOGE price (yellow line) began its 25% rise from $0.065 to reach $0.082 on July 26.
Interestingly, within that timeframe, PEPE Daily Active Addresses (green line) dropped from 5,086 on July 14 to 1,999 active users recorded at the close of July 25.
This represents a whopping 61% decline in PEPE network usage. Unsurprisingly, PEPE’s price has sunk by 45% within the last three weeks.
Investors Dumping PEPE for Dogecoin | PEPE Daily Active Addresses vs. DOGE Price, July 2023 | Source: Santiment
Daily Active Addresses evaluates changes in network activity by tracking the number of unique wallet addresses conducting transactions daily. A continuous decline means that the underlying is losing demand.
Consipicpusly, PEPE active users began to reduce around July 14, barely 2 days after the Dogecoin price rally began. This suggests that memecoin fans are jettisoning the PEPE network to ape in on Dogecoin.
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While Investors are Dumping, Market Share is Also In a Downtrend
In further confirmation of investors selling PEPE to buy Dogecoin, Network Growth data reveals that the former is struggling to attract new users.
As depicted below, PEPE Network Growth has declined since the DOGE price rally began on July 14. Indicatively, between July 14 and July 25, Network Growth dropped by 73% from 1,703 to 463 new addresses.
Investors Dumping PEPE for Dogecoin | PEPE Network Growth, July 2023 | Source: Santiment
Network Growth measures the rate at which a blockchain network attracts new users. As observed above, a persistent decline over an extended period means the underlying token may struggle to attract sufficient demand in subsequent weeks.
In addition, it also underlines that PEPE is losing market share to competitors in the memecoin world. Hence, if Dogecoin price continues its rally, PEPE recovery will likely remain elusive.
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PEPE Price Prediction: Bear Could Add One More Zero
PEPE price could add one more zero and retrace below $0.0000010 if the investors selling PEPE to buy Dogecoin continue on that trajectory.
However, according to IntoTheBlock’s Break-Even Price distribution data, the $0.0000015 resistance could be an important area to reclaim if there is more upside expected.
The 32,500 wallets had bought a total of 84.8 trillion PEPE tokens at an average price of $0.0000010. It could trigger a price rebound if they desperately buy more tokens to avoid slipping into a net-loss position.
But if they keep selling PEPE to buy other memecoins like Dogecoin, PEPE’s price could drop below $0.0000010.
PEPE (PEPE) Price Prediction | Break-Even Price data, July 2023 | Source: IntoTheBlock
Still, if PEPE can reclaim $0.0000020, the bulls can overturn this bearish narrative. But as seen above, some of the 62,500 addresses holding 199.3 trillion tokens at the average price of $0.0000020 could force a downswing.
But if the bulls push that resistance level aside, the PEPE price could rise toward $0.0000030.
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